The Orange Variable
Brent and Alf discuss the n-th injection of the Orange Variable in markets: Trump decided to escalate again with Iran, and even suggested the ceasefire might be over altogether. The duo discusses how to approach these in...
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The Macro Trading Floor
Alfonso Peccatiello & Brent Donnelly
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elbruno
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Vikram Sekar and Austin Lyons
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The Macro Trading Floor
Alfonso Peccatiello & Brent Donnelly
The Rebasement Trade
Alf and Brent discuss the major market shifts since the Warsh press conference. Is this a big macro shift or just a mini-trend that will ultimately slow down or even reverse?
The Inflation Ghost, Gold and Options
To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com (or Alfonso Peccatiello on BBG) To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com (or Brent Donnelly on BBG) In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss the best risk/reward ways...
Process, Process, Process
To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com (or Alfonso Peccatiello on BBG) To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com (or Brent Donnelly on BBG) In this episode, Alf and Brent focus on various aspects of their...
Macro Investing In A Post-Hormuz World
To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com Alf and Brent refresh their macro and trading frameworks on the basis of new info: the Iran/US MoU in negotiation phase, h...
New All-Time Highs Are Here: Now What?
To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com Alf and Brent discuss the framework for an Iran-US deal, and how to approach rates, currencies and equity markets for the f...
Frameworks To Trade The Hormuz Crisis
To reach out to Alf: alf@palinurocapital.com To reach out to Brent: bdonnelly@spectramarkets.com Alf and Brent are back discussing frameworks to approach this market as a short-term oriented trader or as a long-term foc...
How To Trade Macro In A War
Alf and Brent reflect on correlations converging to 1 across asset classes, risk management practices in macro deleveraging events, and a game theory approach to how the war could unfold from here.
Hormuz & The Terms of Trade Shock
Alf and Brent discuss the terms of trade shock that the de-facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz is causing. The duo walk through scenarios and probabilities and what framework can be used to trade such a market environm...
The New Fed vs The Good Old Bond Market
To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss how the appointment of the new Fed Chair could shape the US policy making objective in the...
US Dollar Hedging: A Real Risk or Just a Narrative?
To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In this episode, Alf and Brent reflect on the April-2025-like price action which coincided with the tariff threats. Now that the ...
Japanese Macro Tails
To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In this episode, Alf and Brent focus the discussion on Japanese short-term and long-term macro: is the MoF ready to intervene? Ho...
The Everything SuperCycle?
To reach out to Alf and Brent, ping them on BBG (Alfonso Peccatiello and Brent Donnelly). In the first TMTF episode of 2026, Alf and Brent discuss every single macro asset class under the sun: equities, bonds, currencies...
More Pain Ahead Or Buy The Dip?
The Nasdaq has now sold off nearly 10% from the highs, and the pain in momentum assets is even more severe. Alf and Brent discuss whether there are reasons to believe more pain lies ahead, or this is the time to step in...
''Run It Hot'': The Comeback?
Alf and Brent discuss the resurgence of the ''run it hot'' trade: Trump floating around new fiscal stimulus and government reopening odds seem to have revived the trade. How to best approach markets going forward? Want t...
We Have A Deal: Now What?
Alf and Brent discuss the market reaction to the ''deal'' between Trump and Xi: what happens next? The duo also covers the Fed and BoJ decisions, the state of the AI trade, and the Supreme Court hearings on tariffs star...
Momentum Shock: What Next For Markets?
Have a great macro trade idea for Alf and Brent to discuss on the show? Send your trade idea here: TMTF Trade Of The Week Alf and Brent discuss the vicious momentum unwind which took down precious metals and various spe...
Gold & Cockroaches
Have a great macro trade idea for Alf and Brent to discuss on the show? Send your trade idea here: TMTF Trade Of The Week In this episode, Alf and Brent discuss the massive rally in precious metals: what's behind it? Is ...
Buy The Bubble or Watch It Burst?
Alf and Brent discuss the massive AI-driven rally which is beginning to have strong implications for broader markets and the economy. Brent presents the consensus view from several hedge fund PMs he met in Singapore - ar...
Cracks In The US Labor Market - What Next?
Alf and Brent discuss the recent NFP print and its implications for markets. They also reflect on the right framework to apply to RSI and options when dealing with asset classes having skewed return distributions.